2012 Outlook
Is this the year for housing recovery?
Is this the year for housing recovery?
If you have endured our housing market "bust", you will remember that all predictions pointed to 2012 for housing recovery. While we may not be at a level that most homeowners would like to see, we will see some changes in 2012.
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More short sales will get approved by banks and sold due in part to a new foreclosure bill (Assembly Bill 284) that became law in October 2011. More on this next week.
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Cash investors will continue to be the majority of buyer sales since home prices are still undervalued.
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There will be an opportunity and demand for homeowners with equity to sell since many buyers will not wait for short sale approval. We could possibly see a reduction in inventory this year.
Banks will still continue to dominate the real estate market. We have seen 100,000 foreclosures in our market (1 in 5 homes) over the past 4 years and expect to see 100,000 more. For home prices under $150,000, there is a 5.5 month supply of homes. Homes over $500,000 are seeing some improvement; however, there is a 15 month supply of homes in this price range.
Pricing is key, as banks and homeowners are not giving up equity on low priced homes; however, the median home price will more than likely remain the same. For homes over $500,000, it is a buyer's market. Positively, we are seeing some key areas hold value.
Overall, prices have continued to fall over the past year; however, in the last 4 months the average price only fell by $1,000. Year to date, existing home sales have increased, and November was up 17.4%. New home sales decreased 11.3% from last year, and the median new home price increased 3% from last year. These existing home sales statistics include all price ranges including foreclosures, short sales and traditional sales, so we have to take them with a grain of salt. There are pockets of neighborhoods where pricing is stabilized and homes are in demand.
Since bank foreclosures and notice of defaults will continue to control our local market's inventory, it will be interesting to see how Banks manage the foreclosure process with the new Assembly Bill 284 in effect (and the fact that this is an election year). It is too soon to know; however, I see a great opportunity for homeowners who have equity to sell in 2012, as owner-occupied home buyers could have fewer options for quick closings. I also see stronger negotiating power in favor of homeowners for short sale approvals.
Please contact us directly if you have a specific question about the market. We look forward to helping you!
Vicki Simons
The Simons Group
702-266-7193
Pricing is key, as banks and homeowners are not giving up equity on low priced homes; however, the median home price will more than likely remain the same. For homes over $500,000, it is a buyer's market. Positively, we are seeing some key areas hold value.
Overall, prices have continued to fall over the past year; however, in the last 4 months the average price only fell by $1,000. Year to date, existing home sales have increased, and November was up 17.4%. New home sales decreased 11.3% from last year, and the median new home price increased 3% from last year. These existing home sales statistics include all price ranges including foreclosures, short sales and traditional sales, so we have to take them with a grain of salt. There are pockets of neighborhoods where pricing is stabilized and homes are in demand.
Since bank foreclosures and notice of defaults will continue to control our local market's inventory, it will be interesting to see how Banks manage the foreclosure process with the new Assembly Bill 284 in effect (and the fact that this is an election year). It is too soon to know; however, I see a great opportunity for homeowners who have equity to sell in 2012, as owner-occupied home buyers could have fewer options for quick closings. I also see stronger negotiating power in favor of homeowners for short sale approvals.
Please contact us directly if you have a specific question about the market. We look forward to helping you!
Vicki Simons
The Simons Group
702-266-7193
